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  • 2010.1-10 記事リスト①
    中国の貿易政策と海外戦略 10/10/21 中国レア・アース危機への対応 10/10/21 中国との貿易交渉術 10/10/19 円高デフレと産業構造変化 10/10/18 日本と資源大国ロシアの石油産業 10/10/18 非資源国の石油調達戦略 10/10/15 日本の貿易政策;FTA協定(4) 10/10/11 日本の貿易政策:FTA協定(3) 10/10/11 日本の貿易政策:FTA協定(2) 10/10/11 日本の貿易政策:FTA協定(1) 10/10/11 日本貿易の生命線:輸出市場の転換点 10/10/06 日本の資源エネルギー貿易政策(3) 国際独占資本ロイヤルダッチシェルのアジア市場戦略 10/10/02 JETRO 海外調査部 中国市場開拓セミナー参加報告 10/09/09 (2)産業空洞化( de-industrialization )と貿易政策 10/09/07 貿易政策の使命:外需(外部経済)としての景気対策(1) 10/09/07 中国農民工の子弟と日本の大学教育 10/08/21 貿易の定義(教材) 10/06/26 拓殖大学大学院 商学研究科説明会  貿易論の講座内容 10/06/26 2010 国際商取引・貿易演習ゼミ 科目構成(武上ゼミ) 10/06/26 国際取引論の学問体系について 10/06/26 円高による輸出不振は日本産業の空洞化を招く 10/06/26 授業参考資料:日本石油産業転換点(6/23出典ダイヤモンド小島武志氏) 10/06/23 拓殖大学経営経理研究所 研究発表・研究紹介 2010.4. 10/06/23 日本経済のサービス化とサービス貿易の発展 10/06/23 日本と世界のエネルギー貿易(基礎ゼミ資料) 10/06/23 日本のエネルギー資源貿易政策(2)戦後石油産業生成期から見る貿易特性 10/06/23 定期考査・課題リポートの件 10/06/17 貿易論を学ぶ学徒へ:恒産なくして恒心あり 10/06/16 国際取引・貿易ゼミ 「卒業論文のテーマ設定について」 10/06/15 拓殖大学商学部 多国籍企業論 キーワード 講義メモ 2010/5 東洋経済新報社版 テキスト 第8章 独占と不完全競争 10/04/09 東洋経済新報社 テキスト 第9章 寡占経済 10/04/09 2010年度 商学部 国際取引・国際貿易論 講義要項 10/04/09 2010年度大学院商学研究科 講義要項 10/04/09 講義資料:中国・台湾貿易の特徴 (学内使用に限るJETRO HP出典資料より修正) 10/04/09 円高問題とデフレ経済 10/04/09 国際収支・対外負債勘定の急激な変化 2010 10/04/09 国際独占資本の市場支配 10/04/08 資源無き国の貿易政策 10/04/08 貿易通貨と円の起源 10/04/08 中国留学生へ 学問・資格 10/02/20 貿易理論 講座研究用資料 ダウンロード1 10/02/18 経済・貿易理論 第十五章 東洋経済新報社版 テキスト 10/02/17 経済・貿易理論 第十七章  10/02/17 経済・貿易理論 第一章 (東洋経済新報社版 オンラインテキスト)10/02/17 東アジア貿易の構造変化分析 10/01/22 Research & Development Management and Technology Transfer 10/01/20 一年生オリエンテーション講義 10/01/20 技術拡散と市場成果 10/01/20 経営戦略と市場行動 電子技術関連産業と製品市場構造 10/01/20 グローバルR&Dシステムの構築 10/01/20 MNCの内部化理論 10/01/20 市場成長と技術のプロフィール 10/01/20 自動車産業の貿易構造と産業内分業体制 10/01/20 国際技術移行モデル(事例分析) 10/01/20 技術革新と国際投資市場 10/01/20 プロダクトライフサイクル仮説と製品市場戦略 10/01/20 Product design and market strategy(3) 10/01/20 Strategic Information System & technical method of marketing simulation 10/01/20 国際市場と競争戦略 10/01/20 APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX SYSTEM 10/01/20 Analyses of Purchasing Behavior in the Artificial market & its agents 10/01/20 An analysis on product design(1) Characteristic of precision-optical-products market 10/01/20 An Analysis on Product Design (2) Market character of Precision optical products 10/01/20 INTERNATIONAL TRADE&TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 国際貿易と技術革新 10/01/20 Analysis on Information Technology and corporate strategy 10/01/20 国際取引論講義2009年度 案 10/01/20 研究の過去実績(2001年まで) 10/01/20 不完全市場の企業戦略 10/01/20 進路開拓と就職準備について 10/01/20 Structure of product market & corporate strategy(material) 10/01/20 国際取引論の学問体系 10/01/20 研究領域の紹介(武上ゼミ) 10/01/20 貿易の働き(講義資料) 10/01/20 拓殖大学大学院商学研究科のガイダンス 指導内容 10/01/20 日本のエネルギー資源貿易政策(3) 10/01/20 日本のエネルギー資源貿易政策(2) 10/01/20 日本のエネルギー資源貿易政策(1) 10/01/20 円高による輸出不振は日本産業の空洞化を招く 10/01/20 多国籍企業論の内容 10/01/20

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    タイトル 技術拡散と市場成果 経営戦略と市場行動 電子技術関連産業と製品市場構造 グローバルR&Dシステムの構築 MNCの内部化理論 市場成長と技術のプロフィール 自動車産業の貿易構造と産業内分業体制 国際技術移行モデル(事例分析) 技術革新と国際投資市場 プロダクトライフサイクル仮説と製品市場戦略 Product design and market strategy(3) Strategic Information System & technical method of marketing simulation 国際市場と競争戦略 APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX SYSTEM Analyses of Purchasing Behavior in the Artificial market & its agents An analysis on product design(1) Characteristic of precision-optical-products market An Analysis on Product Design (2) Market character of Precision optical products INTERNATIONAL TRADE&TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 国際貿易と技術革新 Analysis on Information Technology and corporate strategy 国際取引論講義2009年度 案 1 研究の過去実績(2001年まで) 不完全市場の企業戦略 進路開拓と就職準備について Structure of product market & corporate strategy(material) 一年生オリエンテーション講義 国際取引論の学問体系 研究領域の紹介(武上ゼミ) 貿易の働き(講義資料) 拓殖大学大学院商学研究科のガイダンス 指導内容 日本のエネルギー資源貿易政策(3) 日本のエネルギー資源貿易政策(2) 日本のエネルギー資源貿易政策(1) 円高による輸出不振は日本産業の空洞化を招く 多国籍企業論の内容

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Structure of product market & corporate strategy

Structure of product market & corporate strategy

(1)

Nihon

Fukushi

University

Kounosuke Takegami

1999.September 17

Index

Preface

1.      Market structure & portfolio management

1-1. Cycle model approach

1-2. Product portfolio management

2.      Semiconductor market and corporate strategy 

2-1.Corporate strategies of Japanese manufactures

2-2.Analayses of semiconductor market and product diffusion

2-3.Product development& cost required 

Conclusion

References

Preface

Managerial approach of Product Portfolio Management: PPM (Abegglen, J.C.& Boston consulting group.1977) in decision-making of corporate strategy is suggestive to the dynamic analysis of market structure and product diffusion, especially in the market fluctuation and trend and positioning of competition. Prerequisite for PPM model requires two factors: pattern of product diffusion in the market, viz. PLC (Product Life Cycle) and the existence of experience curve. Product life cycle concerning market entry and market growth of products is observed remarkably in the semiconductor product market.

1.Market structure & portfolio management

1-1. Cycle model approach

The feature of product life cycle model and experience curve appear in an under mentioned market trend of semiconductor products (SIC365-7), especially observed in the 1975-95 period.

(a) Existence of Learning curve (Henderson Rule)

Learning effect of technology causes sharp cost decrease for products sales in the market, which was discovered as experience rule by

Boston

consulting group (1972) in cost analyzing of semiconductor product. : In case of doubling the accumulation of semiconductor production, the cost of production will decrease to 27.6%, similarly to the Silver-stone curve of the automotive industry.  Accumulation of product contributes to the improvement of process and product line, learning effect of labor and acquirement of technology, in which scale economies of production appears clearly.      

(b) Pai(π) Dollar & Bai(χ)1/2πDollar Rule

Market price of semiconductor unit, especially of memory component will fluctuate and then down to 3.14 (π)dollar or so in the first stage of market entry and secondly further down to about 1/2 (χ)dollar, the price trend of which was also the experience rule, discovered by the

Bell

laboratory: unit price of memory component or tips, whatever the capacity, will reduce to some 3 dollars and further down to some1.5 dollars. Such price trend shows that price elasticity of demand(ε) in the market structure decreases inevitably. Recently the production of 4mega DRAM commences as of 1997,tendency of 2πdollar rule makes itself clear.    

(c) Bai(χ)4 rule

Capacity of memory tips will increase about four times in three years with some tendency, especially in the product line of DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) unit.

(d) IBM cycle (Silicon cycle)

Boom and depression of semiconductor product market has been raised in about four years period since 1974,the market trend of which appears owing to the adjustment of stock notably by IBM, relatively short period of depreciation with production line and timing gap of product switching (Egg Cycling).

Recently, this aforementioned trend is accelerated with expansion of the use in the private sector in which the factor of production cost counts a lot.

1-2. Product portfolio management

PPM model renders corporate strategies to manufacturers in deciding line and range shift of their products and also of their competitors’ in the present and future market, which will show the balance of competition in the market structure.

(Matrix 1)PPM Shift

    

Positioning of competition/ rates of market concentration

Rate of

Market growth

Intense

Moderate

Weak

High

Star

Boy in question

Moderate

   

 ↑

Low

Cash caw

Defeated dog

  Hofer, C.H.&Schendel, D integrates product life cycle model and PPM to apply to the segments of market growth. See following matrix model.

(Matrix 2) Positioning of relative composition and corporate strategy:

Stage of Market Growth

Competition

Intense

Moderate

Weak

Entry

Selection

Development

Strategy Applied

Enlargement of market share

Growth

Growth

Mature

Mature

Saturation

Stagnant

Profit

Concentration

Decline

Withdrawal

(K.Takegami1998)

2.Semiconductor market and corporate strategy 

2-1.Corporate strategies of Japanese manufactures

(Matrix 3) Positioning of semiconductor products applied for PPM model.

                        Market share(→)

Market growth()

Star:      DRAM

Boy in question: PPRAM

Cash caw: Integrated circuit

Defeated dog: Discrete

(K.Takegami1998)

2-2.Analayses of semiconductor market and product diffusion

According to WSTS, estimate of world wide whole sales of semiconductor product (1997) amounts to 138 B dollars (including logic: 22B,MPU: 49B and Memory: 29B) and the sales of Japanese manufactures to 3717B yen. Remarkable sales increase is observed in the MPU sector.

The Japanese semiconductor market rebounded in 1993 and again in 1994, after a significant downturn in 1992. The Japanese market grew to $29.4 billion in 1994. The

U.S.

semiconductor market grew at an even faster rate in these two years, outpacing the Japanese market to become the world’s largest consumer of Semiconductors. The fast-growing Asian market also increased its world market share

The

U.S.

semiconductor market was $33.6 billion in 1994, 33 percent of the total world market. The Japanese market was 29 percent of the world market in 1994.

The shift in the relative positions of the Japanese and

U.S.

markets over the past two years has resulted from a number of factors, including the economic recession in

Japan

, the relocation of many Japanese electronics production facilities to locations outside

Japan

, and the rapid expansion of

U.S.

and other Asian markets. The world market grew by 32 percent in 1994 to $102 billion.’

 

(Table1) Sales and market share of semiconductor manufacturers

(Specified for MPU use. WSTS1994)

Rank

Manufacturer

Sales (M$)

Market share (%)

1

Intel

6569

74.0

2

Motorola

705

8.0

3

AMD

511

6.0

4

Texas

Instrument

200

2.0

5

National semiconductor

188

1.0

6

Cylics

95

0.5

7

IBM

88

0.45

8

NEC

87

0.45

9

Hitachi

79

0.43

10

Toshiba

68

0.4

‘The composition of the semiconductor market differs greatly between

Japan

and the

United States

. In

Japan

, 34.6 percent of the demand for semiconductors comes from the consumer products sector of the market. In the

U.S.

, however, most of the total semiconductor demand comes from the industrial sector, while the consumer products sector accounts for only 5 percent of total semiconductor sales. This emphasis on products outside the consumer products sector, such as computers, for example, is one factor, which has led the

U.S.

semiconductor market to grow at a faster rate than the Japanese semiconductor market. Demand for computers accelerated rapidly during this period, causing an accompanying increase in demand for the various types of semiconductor devices that are used in computers, such as microprocessors, memory chips, logic devices, etc. The

U.S.

personal computer industry in particular showed dramatic increases in production and in its share of the world PC market. Demand for new semiconductor devices is also expected to increase in products of other sectors, as more and more chips, including microprocessors, memory chips, and logic devices, are built into those products to produce more sophisticated and versatile products.’

(Ibid. EIAJ Semiconductor Policy Papers EIAJ-SIA Agreements on Semiconductors

Commentary on Semiconductor Issues)

      (Matrix4) PPM in the semiconductor market applied to product line

Vector of modulating/ Integration of assemble()

Vector of systemizing

/Integration of function()

Systemized product

Ex. DRAM. (+77.2%)

MPU  (+33.2%)

System integrated product

Ex. PPRAM (+1.0%)

    ASIC

      SRAM

Component product

  Ex. Discrete (+36.9%)

Modulated product

Ex. IC (+4.0%)

(Date Source: WSTS. Estimated by K.Takegami 1998)

Modified PPM model listed above will show the definite market shift of product.

‘U.S. companies lead in production of micro-components (microprocessors and micro-controllers) and ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuits) in the logic family of products, while Japanese companies are strong in memory devices such as SRAM and DRAM (Static and Random Access Memory), and devices geared to consumer-oriented products.’

2-3.Product development & cost required

‘The cost of product development has grown dramatically. Cooperation and the pooling of financial resources are essential to defray the huge and permanently growing capital and technological development costs for the leaders of the semiconductor industry. For example, in the 1970’s, total development cost and capital expenditures did not exceed 30 percent of sales. By 1992, this figure had climbed to 40 percent, divided equally between development cost and capital expense. Table below shows the growing cost of product development of DRAM since 1985.’

(Table 2) Product development & cost required

Development of DRAM        year       Cost of product development ($ million)

256 K bit                    1985             110

1 M bit                     1988             250

4 M bit                      1990             400

16 M bit                     1994           85064

256 M bit                    1995          100000

Giga bit                    <2000>          --------

Source: SCRL Report, DRI/McGraw-Hill, and Company Reports

The changing and increasing demand for semiconductors is also affecting the formation of alliances (i.e. Siemens semiconductor entered into corporation with Motorola in developing newest type of SRAM.1999) Another reason alliances will continue to develop in future years is that in order to maintain market share companies must permanently adjust to changing customer’s needs and identify new applications for products.’

Conclusion

According to PPM model and its applied model, in the semiconductor product market

US

manufacturers commonly classified as merchant maker and captive one. Especially predominant merchant manufacturers i.e. Intel, Motorola occupy the largest sales market. (More than 80% of world whole sales), who take the leadership of systemizing and product planning based on PPM model. While other captive maker i.e. IBM, HP, and some Japanese manufacturers supposedly have a higher level of product line and modular process. Compared with the aspect of systemizing and modulation, the latter modular products are superior in the standardization of product line and process to systemizing products. While the former system integrate product is at present PPRAM, which will create new innovation and be immediately put into market entry, where there is the highest value added and the start point of PLC.    

References

(1) Hofer, C.W. & Schendel, D. [Strategy Formulation] Analytical Concepts, West Publishing Co., 1978

(2) Abegglen, J.C.& Boston consulting group  [Portfolio Strategy] President Co,. 1975

(3) Ansoff, H.I. [The New Corporate Strategy] John Wiley & Sons, 1988

(4)

Chandler

, A.D.Jr. [Strategy and Structure] MIT Press 1967

(5) Porter, M. [The Competitive Advantage of Nations] Macmillan 1991

(6) Motorola [Managing change. Positioning for the future 1998] Motorola 1998

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