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« 米国の石油貿易政策:2015年連邦議会の原油輸出再開承認について | トップページ | GAKAPAGOSIZATION »

2017年2月15日 (水)

American oil trade policy: About crude oil export of 2015 Federal Congress resumption approval

American oil trade policy: About crude oil export of 2015 Federal Congress resumption approval

Konosuke Takegami

(Key words)

US oil trade policy, Shale oil revolution, oil fund, 2015 Federal Congress resumption approval, Pipeline trade. EIA forecast.

(The preface)

The

United States

which was the world's largest crude oil import country reversed itself throughout and started crude oil export after the war and, after 2010, did policy U-turn for crude oil export by shale oil revolution in

America

. The production on the basis of the

U.S.

shale oil results becomes the considerable quantity more than the domestic demand and, as for the export, is secured a fixed quantity. South America of the former main import followed it, and it was approximately restrictive (around 30% of import-dependence rates), and, as a result, the import decrease from the oil-producing country, dollar return current to the United States began in global crude oil oversupply, reduction of price of the WTI price and before, and the import from Middle Eastern OPEC came to present the influence on various trade problems including the fund withdrawal from oil funds.

As for American crude oil, the import and export via the pipeline with the non-production state of states to produce namely state oil trade is more prosperous than the cause, and, for cheaper foreign countries crude oil import competition, the subsidy of the federal government is paid to the stockbroker refinement company in the United States, and domestic industry protectionism is adopted. This subsidy system became the prop of the domestic oil market price and had big significance in the American oil taxation system. Although a small local supplier appeared as new shale oil dealer, in the market price cartel with the measure, I am made to stand in the numerical inferiority, and the market conditions are always unstable, and a shell oil marker as the state business is installed in which WTI and is expected when it is integrated a market.

The import of condensate made in the United States begins in 2015 in Japan, and import of the full-scale United States oil is planned, but, with the OPEC policy by the Japanese oil trade, a particularity in the United States exists for the different U.S. crude oil import of the dimension a lot at all conventionally, and various problems will exist in future.

Fig A U.S. crude oil production in 2015 was the highest since 1972, but has since declined

Source:

U.S.

Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual

1. Significance of crude oil export of Capitol Hill reopening approval 2015

By the

U.S.

crude oil trade, large crude oil export regulation has been enforced after an oil crisis in the 1970s. The export was regulated except that domestic storage (Strategic Petroleum Reserve method SPR1975) (note 1) was pushed forward for an oil crisis, security and the price maintenance of the crude oil resources in the emergency, and approximately exceptionally Alaska crude oil export for Canada was recognized. The grounds method was vas efferent good law for (purified supplier rule in the oil production state in the

United States

) and 1,980 years for mining industry lease method 1,920 years (there is a having similar tastes will rule in foreign exchange and foreign trade legal requirements in

Japan

).

After 2012 when full-scale production of Shale oil was started, a domestic industry protection rule for the cheap Middle East oil import competition to the crude oil refinement supplier who was the main production person in charge of the Shale oil in the United States was relaxed in the opening by and, in December, 2015, was decided item federation annual expenditure bill Article 1 (the crude oil export removal of a ban) an assembly (note 2), and the crude oil trade as the new export strategy was started mainly.

Conventionally, the oil trade in

America

maintained a maximum amount and the crude oil import of the amount of money in global trade after the war throughout and has been developed a policy based in NAFTA Central and

South America

by the American huge oil major, a strategy pivot leg in the OPEC Middle East. The American crude oil import policy was a main shaft in the global trade through the settlement money

United States

dollar in the quantity and scale base.

The United States produced it as a crude oil import policy, and I let the resource-rich nation attach a market, capital in the Third World where there was many it, and the world oil trade system which unfolded through OPEC as the export cartel built the trade without the product quite equal to at the market size's greatest product and settlement market and a trade credit system.

Even if it was able to be under the global trade system which makes this crude oil trade that which built of

America

a main shaft in nation of limited natural resources

Japan

, and grew up in the oil import large country of the world third place, it may be said.

Fig B Global crude oil balances expected to tighten through 2018

Source:

U.S.

Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook,

On the other hand, a foreign trade debt maximized the United States in crude oil import and had the world's largest trade balance and trade deficit. This caused dollar value reduction of price and the inflation export by it in

America

and it has been repeated that I fell into a remarkable dollar credit uncertainty. The problem of the dollar return current in the United States by the raise in recent QE (dollar quantitative restraint relaxation) and interest rate of America such as Asia currency crisis, the currency sudden fall in the Third World cause it indirectly; of the oil import policy secondary; was influenced.

    Fig C WTI crude oil price estimation in Jan 2016

Above-mentioned serious influence and problem are expected by the global trade system that the crude oil export removal of a ban in

America

continued after the war in 2015. As for the oil export of the conventional oil-producing country, the ratio decreases with the dollar basis quantitatively by the oil import that is one of the axes of the global trade system in

America

making policy U-turn, and it is the drop of the position of the greatest debt country

United States

in the trade, a drop of the dollar hegemony as the settlement money, a participation drop in the international trade system and lowering of consciousness of the free trade leadership as import consumers. Now that I reverse myself, and production of own country shale oil volume is included for a steady growth stage, and constant directionality came to be seen in the country supply and demand system, a pivot leg slants toward an oil export strategy and will greatly touch a spring to the own country market protection for supply strategies and the future policy U-turn including blocking it to add export competitiveness.

In my manuscript paper, "Japanese energy resources trade policy," I discussed conventional American oil trade policy and the Japanese oil import policy for it throughout. It is in a world's largest crude oil producer, and, in this report, a world crude oil maximum import country tries to lecture on (policy turning point) to the world's largest crude oil export country about the influence and a Japanese crude oil import policy about the possibility that it can be in the future as an opportunity in a big epoch of this American crude oil trade policy of 2015.

2. Analogy of the oil trade and state business in

America

At first it is a state business factor and the influence, and, in the American trade policy that a state law is superior to for the federal law, the biggest factor should consider the actual situation of the

Japan

and the

United States

trade assuming the state business system as the federate nation contained by this

United States

. (note 3)

There are an oil-producing country and the non-oil-producing country in the United States, and a comparative advantage to produce from the resources difference including Texas, a wealthy oil production state such as Georgia, the fault resources small state, on the other hand, in western in the north or inferior level is the main factor to start state business, and the logic called supplement or the choice comparison acts between state business and the foreign trade business. It is taking into consideration with connotation profit of the state business and the external capsule profit of the foreign trade as the federation, and a premise that profit of the state business is given priority to, so to speak, exists for

United States

trade.

In the crude oil trade, pipeline placement in the state business becomes the biggest factor in the

United States

. In state business, as for crude oil, the business of oil products, it was for pipeline transportation trade placed approximately from 60s through 70s, and the network connection with the main line pipeline carried out the work that was important in State of non-oil production and an axis of the oil business to bind a harbor and State of the tanker deployment inland together again to bind State of oil production together. It was old Standard Oil, Exxon others, an American oil major mainly I embodied these network economy and economy of a scale and the speed by pipeline transportation, and to have been in charge, and, from the constant scale that pipeline placement and the transportation on the United States scale were accomplished, the United States profit as the federation was given priority to, and the free trade system with the monopolistic capital including the NAFTA trade agreement that I brought further foreign countries development, the OPEC formation and Mexico, Venezuela, an oil-producing country such as Canada into has been pushed forward.

Fig D . Colonial Pipeline restarts Line 1, resumes gasoline shipments to U.S. Southeast

(the source) from quotation, references (3)

On the other hand, a small and medium size small-scale supplier including EOG which aspects are different, and the recent Shale oil revolution depends on non-pipeline transportation, an oil transport car, a railroad for mainly, is made.

Digging is over in a toe binding, Marcellus,

Utica

, a Hein’s building, eagle Ford, the 60s such as Bamiyan

Texas

, and the stockbroker of the Shale oil digging supplier consisting of local purified suppliers is the small-scale oil field group which is not produced of the profit by the once large-scale development. Even if there is little capital including the medium and small-sized business, by a developed Yokobori digging technology, the profit scale of the fixed quantity depends on a technique to be provided even from the small oil field, and, with the Shale oil revolution, residual collection, accumulation abandoned as condensate in before are enabled. (note 4)

In late years the Shale oil digging supplier accomplished rapid growth with small capital by a new technology. These suppliers run the oil refining business and are pushed for import of cheap Middle Eastern oil, the African oil conventionally, and, for competition inferior level with the import oil, some suppliers receive a subsidy for safeguarding from a state and the federal government. (note 5) (note 6)

The changes plan from import of the crude oil trade in

America

to export is asymmetry, and it is encouragement promotion of protection and the Shale oil digging business of the purified supplier in the

United States

and "choice of the polar regions".

Besides, there is a problem of the market conditions change peculiar to resources system product and is not same. The Shale oil market price is West Texas Intermediate WTI, but the handling began in 2016, but a market conditions change is remarkable, and considerable difference is for the margin trading from a product characteristic such as large quantities, the small sum business with the international marker crude market. (note 7)

In addition, judging from procurement cost of the Shale oil, the mean Shale digging cost is considered to be barrel area around 40 dollars and has the lower part rigorousness of the market conditions price pointed out because the development of the shale oil field was an average of 5 dollars /BBL in the before 70s of the oil crisis.(note 8)

3. An American crude oil export policy and the problem

The following problems are thought about by multilayer structure of the oil trade of the as placed above in

America

. (note 9)

A premise of the American trade policy has an oil production state, the price adjustment with the non-oil production state, and the general profit of the trade policy is offset by state business. It is said that there was the taxation postponement of the electricity production tax of the state tax as barter by the crude oil export removal of a ban plan adoption by the annual expenditure method as the witness in 2016. (note 10)

Profit opportunities increase for a trade negotiation and, in addition to the conventional crude oil trade market, put up that the United States got shale oil, an own domestic trading article in the situation that it is to have obtained a choice, commerce card again, and is predominantly advantageous for the trade with other country, e.g.,

Japan

.

Because sale oil is light quality oil, and Canada occupying most of the crude oil import by an FTA trade agreement in America, NAFTA domestic production crude oil including Venezuela are heavy, there are not the overlap as the trading article, interest opposition and, as complementary goods, living apart is possible and, in the oil manufacture, can adjust it in a trade market.

The American oil import dependence before the Shale oil revolution after 2,005 years ago went over 70%, and the dependence drop to current 30% brought big trade profit in the United States. The export destination country of the U.S. Shale oil is Europe and South America, and most are used for a trade with heavy oil in resale purpose, South America in

Europe

.

The American new administration enhances production and an export point of own country crude oil, and a second base XL pipeline setting plan surfaces for the alternative example item, and the infrastructure investment that foresaw shale oil increase in production is expected.

(concluding remarks)

I determine as placed above, the shale oil, and it is cheap, and I am not exported, and crude oil export trade is performed policymaking of after adjustment with the state business after price adjustment in the United States by balance and taking into consideration of the connotation (state business in the federation: a market conditions marker in the United States) profit and external capsule (the federal trade that is foreign trade: an international market conditions marker) profit. The economy of the pipe line network by the state business achieved economy of scale and I took profit into consideration for state business as federal business and I was superior and contributed to development of the foreign trade.

The crude oil export resumption approval (2015) has big significance in this sense. By shale oil revolution, the United States has the main factor in oil trade as one possibility in the country and lowers foreign countries dependence, and it will be done pricing (note 8) mainly by a country standard in the United States when the unification of the refinement supplier does the setting (WTI (United States index) adopts it partly at this stage) of the shake oil marker again will adopt a policy making price dominance.

(Explanatory note)

(Note 1)

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve method I store crude reserve method by the federal government, 700 million BBL to

Louisiana

and

Texas

four salt dome. Emergency private enterprise releases this long-term storage crude oil United States Department of Energy. I oblige it to storage in private enterprise, 2 people of the government and, in IEA, do a share for an emergency for 90 days, but, in our country, hardly achieve it.

(Note 2)

The nonprofit foundation Japan Petroleum Institute "PETROTEC" Vol.40 2017 P42 Inst. of Energy Economics, Japan Awake Segno "crude oil export of United States removal of a ban"

(Note 3)

There is the inside and outside the country trade transaction connection method that the economic rationality of the transaction including UCC (American general Commercial Code) is ratified in a state law, and was adopted as the federal law in the United States, but the benefit and protection of the law of the state is given priority to, and regulation is hung for the business such as farm and marine industries, a mineral by a state law.

(Note 4)

The import of American residual substance condensate from

Texas

was started after an interval of 43 years, and, in February, 2017, expectation was sent to

Japan

. "Procurement of crude oil remains, and being up can lose a dispute (in future) in the Middle East, and Cosmo Oil, Shinji Nakayama crude oil foreign route director may let you do the world crude oil market which but is confused by price slump with the big merit in a meaning called the stability procurement" more uncertainly. Nihon Kauai Shim bun 2017/02/11

(Note 5)

A system to receive an import subsidy as safeguarding to avoid competing inferior level. In WTO agreement, world duty treaty WCO, I appeal for system abolition as a special tariff.

(note 6),

After an oil crisis, a lot of oil refining companies of our country were made to take the comparison low level with the import competition, too, and took an export cartel, the measure including the subsidy from the government, but returned, and the industry decline accelerated it. At present, I change the oil reserve to the storage in cheap foreign countries (

Korea

) for profit pressure of the domestic stock.

(note 7)

By the problem of the shale oil digging cost, is trade crude oil 1BBL (barrel) 40 dollars

Because shale oil price consists of the market conditions that I surpassed a comparative advantage, and was 1BBL= an average of 5 dollars before the oil crisis,   it is reported that it is considerably expensive. On the other hand, shale oil digging cost becomes the prop of the price and has the possibility to do price hike pointed out in the long term.

(note 8)

Ishi Yutaro "Wedge Infinity" 2016.Jun where "the forward business futures fall down if goods crude oil remains because entry crude oil competes with WTI crude oil produced by the conventional oil field of the middle western district, and goods crude oil price falls down, and the goods fall down." which "does not match international commodities with a price movement of forming North Sea crude oil and Dubai crude oil because a value moves by the circumstances that it in the United States is local"

(note 9)

"The United States increases Cher oil in a new digging technology such as the water pressure crush methods very much, and a good chance to sign a bill because is approached by the closedown of the government office if a crude oil export removal of a ban bill goes along the assembly if expressed it when veto it, and a provisional budget only expires, and the Obama Administration may show a stronger criticism to the government outruns Saudi Arabia in 2014 world's largest oil-producing country and it was, and, on the other hand, grow country stock the gas price in the United States largely fall is Nihon Keizai Shimbun 2015/12/17 where some said for the export removal of a ban from the industry."

(note 10)

Japan Petroleum Institute PETROTECH "energy circumstances February, 2017 of the

United States

", P74 Ichiro Maeda interview.

(quotation, references and referring site)

1. Nonprofit foundation Japan Petroleum Institute "PETROTEC" Vol.40 2017

2. "Wedge Infinity" 2016.Jun http://wedge.ismedia.jp/articles/-/5825?page=2

3. IEA.DATA Book http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=28692

4.

U.S.

Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook,January 2017

5.

U.S.

Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual

 

(contributed, Feb 15.2017)

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